Can Sergio Win A Major?

By Chad Hollingsworth
Love of Sports Correspondent

The final major of the PGA Tour season is among us, and unless you’re one of the 14 people (myself included) who have this whole FedEx Cup thing figured out in its second year of existence, this might be the last tournament that’ll catch your attention.

However, the fact that the world’s #1-ranked player likely won’t swing a golf club until 2009 also might deter you from turning on your television this weekend. That’s fine and dandy, but let me explain to you what you’re missing.

The PGA Championship is being held at Oakland Hills this year. Chances are, if you’ve cared about major golf at all in your life, you’ve seen a major played at Oakland Hills. Most recently, you saw the European squad slaughter the United States there in 2004. Yes, this was the magical year that saw Hal Sutton decide to pair Tiger and Phil Mickelson together and … disastrous results occurred.

Let’s remember Oakland Hills for the positives, though. This course has had legends such as Arnold Palmer, Jack Nicklaus and Ben Hogan all win tournaments on it. However, even a guy from out of nowhere, like Steve Jones in the 1996 U.S. Open, can come through and be victorious.

This type of parity is what makes Oakland Hills so great. The par-70, 7,395-yard layout isn’t going to eliminate guys who don’t drive the ball like J.B. Holmes. The secret to Oakland Hills, much like Augusta National, is putting. U.S. Ryder Cup captain Paul Azinger even compared the greens here to Augusta’s. The greens are notorious for tough pin placements, slick surfaces and mind-bending breaks (they really do sound similar to that famous course in Georgia).

So, suppose this tournament really IS any golfer’s to win this weekend. Is it going to be one of the top tier guys on the PGA Tour? Or is it going to be a guy like Shaun Micheel or Rich Beem? Who wouldn’t want to see a Roy McAvoy-type performance this weekend? However, the fun is really in predicting the results, is it not?

Who Should Do Well

1. Jim Furyk

The fact that Furyk hasn’t won a tournament this year doesn’t stop me from making him one of the favorites and, dare I say, my predicted winner of this weekend’s tournament. Since finishing tied for fifth at Royal Birkdale, he’s made his last three cuts and is arguably playing his best golf of the season. This is a former Top 5 golfer in the world who usually puts on good showings on tough courses. He’s also very good at hitting greens in regulation, and if his putter is on, he becomes the player to beat.

2. Kenny Perry

I complained that I couldn’t pick him at the British Open, so why wouldn’t I pick him here? I know he didn’t do so hot at Bridgestone last week, but before that he finished T6, 1, 1, T6. I say anyone who doesn’t pick him is crazy. Plus, like Furyk, he’s a greens in regulation machine and can also get streaky with the putter. If Perry recaptures his form from the past few weeks, we might just see a 48-year-old man besides Julius Boros win a major.

3. Retief Goosen

OK, so I thought he’d do much better at the British Open, but a tie for 32nd in those weather conditions isn’t so bad, right? Here’s why I like Goosen so much: putting on fast greens. His two majors are U.S. Opens (and Oakland Hills has held U.S. Opens, obviously). Remember the slick greens at Shinnecock in 2004? Or how about Southern Hills in 2001? Those greens were notably challenging, and Goosen came through. He’s one of the best players on Tour at putting on fast greens, and that alone makes him a favorite in my book. Finally, a tie for fourth at Bridgestone last week shows he might be ready to move up the world rankings once again.

4. Robert Allenby

This Tour vet might have the game and the perfect timing (read: NO TIGER) to capture his first major championship. He’s better statistically in greens in regulation than both Furyk and Perry, but his putting leaves a bit to be desired. Still, if he can knock his irons close (which he can definitely do), he’s a threat to win this thing. Plus, he finished tied for third at the AT&T National, tied for seventh at the British Open, and had a respectable tie for 20th at the Bridgestone last week. He’s playing his best golf of the year, and he could definitely make some noise on the leaderboard this weekend.

5. Padraig Harrington

You know what? I admit it. I was fooled by Harrington’s hurt wrist at the British last month. I wrote him off, but I won’t make the same mistake. Don’t be surprised if he’s the first guy to win back-to-back majors since … umm … it’ll come to me … that guy who’s really good, wears the Nike hat … umm… well, we’ll come back to it. Seriously, though, Harrington’s now moved up to being the third-ranked player in the world, and his putting will be able to handle Oakland Hills’ greens.

Who Won’t Do Well

1. Phil Mickelson

I’d like to think Phil will break through in one of these majors, but he’s barely shown up on the big stage since slicing his drive on Winged Foot’s 18th hole in 2006. Until he recaptures his major mojo, I’m not gambling with Lefty.

2. Sergio Garcia

I know, he’s a talented kid. I also know he won the Players Championship this year. But I also know he had two putters in his bag at the Match Play Championship (lack of confidence?) and is still prone to putting woes in any tournament he enters. He’ll win a major someday, but it won’t be this weekend.

3. Luke Donald

Because he’s not playing, that’s why. That’s too bad, because this course is right up Donald’s alley, and a good showing here would’ve likely got him on the European Ryder Cup team. Now, even if he’s healthy, he probably won’t be representing Europe at Valhalla in September.

Keep An Eye On

1. Paul Casey

When Casey’s hot, he’s really hard to beat. His last two tournaments (on two tough courses) have seen him put up a T7 (at the British Open) and a T8 (at the Bridgestone). Add to this he’s trying to get Nick Faldo’s attention just in case he doesn’t qualify for the European Ryder Cup team, and this Brit is primed for big things this weekend.

2. Robert Karlsson

In case you didn’t notice, Karlsson’s posted Top 10 finishes in the other three majors this year. A solid tie for 20th at the Bridgestone last week shows this European Tour veteran will definitely have his “A” game ready for this tournament. He’s likely already secured a spot on the European Ryder Cup, but his game shows he’s ready to take a major championship title as well.

3. Anthony Kim

Kim will need a strong showing to qualify for the U.S. Ryder Cup team, although Azinger would be crazy not to name him a captain’s pick if he didn’t. However, Kim’s a wizard at shot-making and will likely have an answer for whatever Oakland Hills throws at him. If he putts better than he did at Royal Birkdale, a PGA Championship could be in the cards for him.

To summarize, a tough course will likely make this weekend’s PGA a tournament to remember (much like Royal Birkdale). Let’s show some love for the players named here and to the unknowns who could be famous by Sunday evening.