Race for the Chase Scenarios
By Adam Ruggiero
Love of Sports Correspondent
If you’re even a quasi-casual fan of NASCAR, this is what you’ve been waiting for.
Saturday night is race No. 26 on the year, the final race to determine who will compete in the Chase to the Sprint Cup title.
Last week in California was a bit of a snoozer, particularly if you’re not a fan of clean, multi-groove racing where fuel-mileage and cautions don’t play a part. Still, even without twisted metal pile-ups or overflowing tempers, Fontana set up some pretty interesting Chase scenarios - only the Top 5 drivers have clinched a spot (Kyle Busch, Carl Edwards, Jimmie Johnson, Dale Earnhardt, Jr. and Jeff Burton).
The other seven spots are for grabs among eight big name drivers and one little-known contender.
So, even if NASCAR is just a passing summer fancy to hold you over ‘til the NFL, you can bet Saturday night at Richmond will send you off with sparks, wrecks and some seriously upset drivers whose hopes turn to desperation on the 3/4-mile Virginia short track. Here’s what to watch for:
Chase Scenarios
--The sixth and seventh-place drivers, Greg Biffle and Kevin Harvick, need only to start the ignition and roll their bumpers past the start/finish line when the green flag waves to become Chasers.
--Tony Stewart can finish 36th or better and he’s in. He can also finish 37th and lead at least one lap, or finish as low as 40th and lead the most laps and still make it.
--Matt Kenseth has to finish 26th or better, finish 28th and lead a lap, or finish 30th and lead the most laps to clinch.
--Jeff Gordon needs to come home in 24th or above, 25th with a lap led, or 28th and the most laps led to get in.
--Denny Hamlin needs a 21st-place finish to make it, 22nd and he’d need to lead one lap, or 25th and lead the most.
So, that’s the easy part for the six drivers already occupying the bottom half of the Top 11. Things get a quite a bit dicier in the battle for that final spot, however:
--Clint Bowyer, currently situated in that coveted bubble spot, needs to win OR finish second or third while leading the most laps to ensure his place in the Chase. If he doesn’t lead the most laps or win, his fate lies in the hands of two other drivers.
--David Ragan is just 17 points behind Bowyer for 12th. For him to shock the NASCAR world and scoot into the Chase, he’ll have to be near perfect … win the race AND lead the most laps. Short of that, Ragan will need to hope he finishes high enough and both Bowyer and Kasey Kahne drop low enough that the numbers crunch his way.
--Kahne brings up the rear of the feasible contenders, though he controls very little of his own destiny. A win is his only real shot at having a chance. A Top 5 and seriously bad luck for Bowyer and Ragan is his only other hope.
--Brian Vickers and Ryan Newman, in 16th and 17th, respectively, will be officially eliminated when/if Ragan and Kahne start the race.
Add to all this the fact that the introduction of the Chase format has made the end of NASCAR’s “regular season” race at Richmond one hell of a barn-burner, and you have a terrific Saturday night of racing. In fact, none of the top 13 drivers has an average finish worse than 20th at Richmond, and nine of them have won there before.
On the other hand, eight of these competitors have finished 35th or worst at least once in the last three years (seven races), yet seven of the Top 10 spots in the last race here went to Chase contenders.
Those on the bubble are anything but safe, and those on the outside probably have to drive their best race of the season to make it. Oh yeah, there’s a $250,000 winner’s purse up for grabs too. All 43 drivers, contenders or not, will do everything to steal the checkers. It’s surely going to be a wild ride!
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